Today on Arguably, Alan Lockey, Keir Starmer’s former chief speechwriter, warns that Labour has left itself vulnerable to a Tory revival. To find out why, become a paid subscriber or sign up for a seven-day free trial.
Imagine the scenario. A new prime minister takes over midterm. The ideological shackles are fearlessly cast off, delighting the party faithful. But there’s trouble immediately ahead. War means energy prices are set to rise. The global economy is on tenterhooks. Whatever light there was in the fiscal tunnel now appears to be dimming. A Budget approaches.
Now, snap back to the present. For the above describes not 2026, but 2022. The differences are as important as the parallels. Andy Burnham is not Liz Truss. Not on comms ability, not on understanding Britain, not on fiscal literacy.
As importantly, the Iran war is not Ukraine. The fiscal outlook for the Budget is tough, but in terms of the likely consolidation required it falls short of 2024 – when taxes rose by £40bn – or the gloomy 2022 forecasts that so panicked the Conservative Party.
Yet the question Labour strategists dare not ask is this: might Kemi Badenoch be Keir Starmer? Is she, after two years of patient preparation, finally ready to make her move?
