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Only the most churlish Starmerite would deny that Andy Burnham’s No 10 operation has got off to a flying start. With deft, swift and optimistic comms, Labour has overtaken Reform in the polls and is well on its way to reuniting the left. Despite this, I feel anxious that a Labour Prime Minister, with the potential to break the curse of fleeting tenures, is going to repeat one of Keir Starmer’s biggest mistakes: not moving far or fast enough on Europe.
During my time as a Foreign Office special adviser, I saw Rachel Reeves eventually conclude that breaking Labour’s red lines on Europe was necessary to achieve higher economic growth. But the window of opportunity had already closed. By the May elections, Starmer and Reeves had missed the political benefits of a more pro-European stance: rallying the Labour base and eroding support for the Greens and the Lib Dems. They had also missed the fiscal benefits of bond markets pricing in a higher growth trajectory. It was only in the dying days of his premiership that Starmer vowed to put Britain “at the heart of Europe” – without anything resembling a plan to do so.
What I fear now is this recent history repeating itself. The risk is that Burnham and John Healey endure a painful Budget, start to lose the party’s enthusiasm and the nation’s support, and only then realise they need to go further on Europe, having laid none of the diplomatic and political groundwork. In this post I’ll set out how they can do that – and why an election with Europe on the ballot is now Burnham’s best hope.